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How much containment has avoided death in France?

Containment measures have been taken in all European countries in recent weeks to contain the pandemic. And to believe Imperial College London, these made it possible to avoid a much heavier toll between the start of the epidemic and March 31 in eleven countries studied, namely France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom , Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, Belgium and Austria.

In total, 59,000 additional deaths would have been avoided thanks to these measures. France (of which 3% of the population has already been contaminated according to this study, or just under 2 million people) would have counted at least 5,600 deaths on March 31, which is 2,500 more than the figures released by the authorities. This figure climbs to 38,000 in Italy, the country with the most deaths in the world, and 16,000 in Spain, the only two countries that “surpass” France in this area. By way of comparison, at least 560 deaths have been avoided in Belgium or 550 in Germany. This difference can be explained by the introduction of late containment measures in certain countries: it takes two to three weeks to be able to really measure the effects of these.

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“Even as the death toll continues to rise, we are seeing enough signals in the data to conclude that sustained and drastic actions by European governments have already saved lives by reducing the number of new infections every day,” says thus doctor Seth Flaxman, who participated in this study. To obtain these figures, the scientists modeled the dynamics of the epidemic based on the fact that the same containment measure had the same impact in the countries studied.

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